The Future Of Where

The Future Of Where

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The Future Of Where
The Future Of Where
How Sunbelt Downtowns Can Thrive

How Sunbelt Downtowns Can Thrive

They have some advantages that older Downtowns don’t have. But the challenges, including competition from other activity centers within their home regions, are immense. Here’s what they can do.

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Bill Fulton
Feb 27, 2025
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The Future Of Where
The Future Of Where
How Sunbelt Downtowns Can Thrive
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I’ve been spending more time than usual in Sunbelt Downtowns lately – Albuquerque and Phoenix in addition to my usual Houston and San Diego -- and that’s gotten me to thinking how they are doing in the post-COVID, work-from-home era.

And it’s a mixed bag. On the one hand, they’ve got a lot going for them – usually pretty good pre-war bones, a pretty good jobs base, regional cultural and entertainment activities, and a core of public transit. But Sunbelt cities have grown up in the suburban era, meaning sometimes they don’t play the central role their counterparts play in other parts of the country.

So here’s an assessment of how they’re doing – and what can be done to make sure they are high-quality places that have an important role in the Future Of Where.

1. They’re Big – Or At Least They Seem Big

This feeling first struck me in Albuquerque, but it has come to me again and again, especially during my visit to Phoenix this week (more on that below).

Downtown Phoenix

Downtown Albuquerque is less than one square mile and it’s got lots of stuff – the usual government center, major office buildings for both private companies and the federal government, a convention center, a train station, a brewery district and a good “Main Street”-type district in Central Avenue.

Yet it feels huge and disconnected.

Why?

As is the case in most Southwestern cities, most of the streets are very wide. The major facilities – government office buildings, the convention center – are monuments sitting on their own plots rather than buildings integrated into the fabric of downtown. There are still a lot of surface parking lots, both public and private. And the public realm can be pretty uninspiring.

Other Southwestern downtowns are better but they still feel big. Phoenix has poured a ton of effort into its downtown and it hangs together better, but it still feels pretty big.


What was I doing in Phoenix this week? On behalf of the Neal Peirce Foundation, Chris Swope and I are updating Neal’s landmark 1987 “Peirce Report” on the state of the Phoenix region. For those too young to recall, Neal Peirce was the pre-eminent journalist writing about cities and urban affairs from the 1970s to the 2000s. He wrote a syndicated column, many books, and 26 “Peirce Reports” about different regions. Our work is being undertaken in partnershp by Greater Phoenix Leadership and will be rolled out at the organization’s 50th anniversary event on May 8.


Meanwhile. If you’re interested in California, check out my op-ed piece in today’s Los Angeles Times, dealing with the consequences of slowing population growth in California. Even though the state has many NIMBYs, cities and counties there are heavily dependent on new real estate development to stay afloat because of the limitations of Proposition 13. But explosive growth isn’t coming back to California anytime soon – if ever – so I’m suggesting it’s time to rethink the system.


2. They Don’t Feel Active – At Least During The Day

As my colleague Chris Swope and I were walking down Central Avenue in Phoenix the other morning (yes, there’s a Central Avenue in both Albuquerque and Phoenix), we realized that other than a woman walking toward us, we were the only pedestrians around.

This is not unusual post-COVID – and it’s not true at all times of day. (Most Downtowns are doing quite well at night.) But it’s especially striking on a wide Southwestern street under the glaring Southwestern sun (even in February). Unlike Downtown streets in the Northeast especially, these Downtowns don’t feel intimate. They’re designed for people to drive into and out of while they go Downtownt o do one thing and one thing only.

3. They’ve Got A Lot Of Competition

And that competition takes many forms.

Virtually all Southwestern Downtowns have an “Old Town” that is not the downtown. Albuquerque has an Old Town a mile away that’s quite charming and easily accessible from downtown via bus rapid transit. San Diego’s original “Old Town” (now something of a tourist trap) is also not downtown, though it is easily accessible by both bus and train. So the historic charm is someplace else.

Downtown Tempe

And because Southwestern cities grew rapidly during the auto-oriented postwar era, the downtown areas also have a lot of competition from newer and more manufactured downtowns. Downtown Houston competes with the so-called Uptown area around The Galleria shopping center, which is essentially a second and more upscale downtown with offices, hotels, shopping, and a lot of housing.

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In Phoenix, Downtown Tempe is emerging as a regional powerhouse, with a lot of new construction from Arizona State, good walkable mixed-use stuff, and biggish new office buildings with corporate logos. (Though, to be fair, Arizona State has also made a huge bet in Downtown Phoenix.)

So the Southwestern Downtowns have good bones and potential but they also need to be nurtured to thrive and serve as the true centers of their regions. Here are four things I’d say the need to focus on.

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